Move the environment. Watch the chamber move.

The published forecast assumes the national environment the model was frozen with. Drag the dial and the same simulation re-runs against a different one — every coefficient, the seed and each seat's lean untouched. Only the number at zero is the desk's forecast. Everything else on this page is a scenario, and the record grades none of it.

National environmentPublished forecast

← 8 pts to Republicans8 pts to Democrats →

Democrats hold 51+

18%

Forecast 18%

Republicans hold the chamber

82%

Includes 50–50, tie to R

Median Democratic seats

80% range 46–51

Seat distribution20,000 simulations

39 DMajority at 5161 D

Seats that change handsNothing moves at zero

The dial is at the published forecast, so every seat sits where the desk has it on the record.

Tipping seat under this scenario

Ohio13.6%

Florida13.0%

Alaska10.5%

Iowa10.2%

Texas10.1%

Kansas6.5%

Every scenario on this page comes out of the model printed on the method page, version senate-2026.1, frozen 2026-08-05. Moving the dial changes one input and nothing else. The desk's exposure remains the forecast at zero, and only that is graded on the record.

Structure: sitting members, class-2 Senate seats, 2026 gubernatorial cycle · retrieved 2026-08-11