Race rooms
A board gives you 22 numbers. A room gives you the seat: why it is on the list, what the desk actually holds on it, what would have to be true for it to move, and — where a first-party source pass is complete — every candidate under identical headings.
Senate
Each of these prints the seat's own model terms — the 2024 baseline, every coefficient applied to it, and the simulated probability.
Georgia · Senate · Class 2The Georgia roomThe most exposed incumbent of the cycle. Ossoff won a runoff by a fraction in a state that voted the other way at the top of the ticket in 2024, and the seat sits inside the model's tipping band.Toss-up D · Ledger openNorth Carolina · Senate · Class 2The North Carolina roomAn open seat in the state that has been decided inside four points in three straight cycles. Tillis retiring removes the only incumbency term the model had to apply here.Toss-up R · No ledger yetMaine · Senate · Class 2The Maine roomThe last Republican holding a Senate seat in a state the other party carries nationally. Every outside forecast of this seat since 2014 has been wrong in the same direction.Toss-up R · No ledger yetMichigan · Senate · Class 2The Michigan roomOpen, in a state whose last two Senate races were decided inside two points. Michigan is the seat most likely to decide the chamber if the national environment lands near the middle of the drag prior.Lean D · No ledger yetIowa · Senate · Class 2The Iowa roomIowa votes further right than it used to and still refuses to give this seat a comfortable margin. Ernst has never won by the number the state's presidential baseline implies she should.Lean R · No ledger yetOhio · Senate · Class 3 (special)The Ohio roomAn appointed senator facing voters for the first time. The model applies no incumbency term to an appointment, which is why this rates closer than Ohio's recent statewide results would suggest.Lean R · No ledger yetTexas · Senate · Class 2The Texas roomThe fundamentals are not close. The live risk is a nominee chosen by a low-turnout primary electorate, which is a different distribution from the state's general-election baseline.Lean R · No ledger yetNew Hampshire · Senate · Class 2The New Hampshire roomAn open seat in a state that elects Republican governors and Democratic senators in the same election without apparent discomfort. The ticket-splitting is the structure, not an anomaly.Lean D · No ledger yetAlaska · Senate · Class 2The Alaska roomRanked-choice voting keeps Alaska off any safe list. The desk rates the seat likely rather than safe because the counting rule, not the electorate, is the source of the uncertainty.Likely R · No ledger yet
Governor
No model runs on governors. These rooms publish a stated rating with the reason behind it, and say so rather than manufacturing a number.
Georgia · GovernorThe Georgia mansionKemp is termed out, so the closest state in the country runs an open governor's race on the same ballot as its closest Senate race. The two are correlated and the desk says so rather than rating them as independent events.Toss-up R · No ledger yetMichigan · GovernorThe Michigan mansionWhitmer is termed out and a credible independent candidacy is live, which is the rare case where a three-way split can decide a governorship outright.Toss-up D · No ledger yetWisconsin · GovernorThe Wisconsin mansionWisconsin decides statewide races by about a point. Evers retiring removes the incumbency term that was the only thing keeping this off a coin flip.Toss-up D · No ledger yetNevada · GovernorThe Nevada mansionA Republican governor sitting on an electorate that still registers narrowly the other way. Nevada's off-year turnout machine is the variable everyone models badly.Toss-up R · No ledger yetArizona · GovernorThe Arizona mansionHobbs won by a fraction of a point and has governed against a legislature of the other party for the whole term. There is an incumbency term here, and it is small.Lean D · No ledger yetKansas · GovernorThe Kansas mansionKansas elects Democratic governors when the other party nominates badly. Rating this lean is a bet on an opponent's mistake, and the desk labels it as such rather than dressing it as a read on the state.Lean R · No ledger yetMaine · GovernorThe Maine mansionOpen with Mills termed out, in a state whose ranked-choice generals rarely resolve the way first-round polling implies.Lean D · No ledger yetIowa · GovernorThe Iowa mansionOpen with Reynolds retiring, in a state where the president's party has historically bled in midterms. The open-seat term and the drag prior point the same direction here.Lean R · No ledger yet
House
Districts are read against their certified 2024 presidential margin and the national swing-to-seats conversion, because the 2026 maps are still in litigation.
Pennsylvania · 7th districtThe Lehigh Valley roomA first-term Republican in a district the presidential ticket carried by under two points. On the national conversion the desk publishes, this is inside the band that moves first.Chamber model · No ledger yetArizona · 6th districtThe Tucson-edge roomTwice decided by under two points, and the incumbent has run consistently ahead of the top of his own ticket. It is the cleanest live test of whether a personal vote survives a midterm.Chamber model · No ledger yetNebraska · 2nd districtThe Omaha roomThe clearest crossover district in the country: it awards a presidential elector one way and has re-elected a member of the other party six times. Bacon's retirement removes the personal vote that made the split work.Chamber model · No ledger yetMichigan · 7th districtThe Lansing roomThe most expensive open-seat House race of 2024 and one of the closest presidential districts still held by a first-termer. It sits on the same ballot as an open Senate race and an open governorship, so its turnout is not independent of them.Chamber model · No ledger yetColorado · 8th districtThe Adams County roomDrawn to be the closest district in the state and has performed exactly as drawn: decided by under a point and a half in both elections it has held.Chamber model · No ledger yet