The Senate board
22 Republican-held and 13 Democratic-held seats are on the ballot, including two specials for appointed senators. With the vice-presidency breaking ties, fifty holds the chamber and fifty-one is required to take it.
Drawn at the desk's current ratings: holdovers plus every seat rated anything other than a toss-up. The pale block in the middle is the part of the Senate this election genuinely decides.
The single most exposed incumbent of the cycle: a first-termer who won by a fraction in a state that voted the other way in 2024.
The last Republican holding a seat in a state the other party carried nationally; every cycle has been called wrong here.
An open seat in the closest state in the country for three cycles running.
Iowa is redder than it was but Ernst's margins have never been comfortable, and midterms punish the president's party here.
Michigan's last two Senate races were decided inside two points, and this one has no incumbent.
An open seat in a state that elects Republican governors and Democratic senators without apparent difficulty.
An appointed senator, a state that has moved right, and a midterm wind pointing the other way.
Texas is not close on the fundamentals; a nominee chosen by a low-turnout primary is the live risk.
Ranked-choice voting keeps Alaska from being safe for anyone, but Sullivan starts with the seat and the machine.
An appointed senator facing voters for the first time, in a state that has moved steadily right since 2018.
Kansas elects Democratic governors and Republican senators; the split has been stable.
Open seats invite primaries, and a bruising primary is the only route by which this seat becomes live.
The risk to Cassidy is a primary, not a general.
Minnesota keeps being called competitive and keeps not being competitive, but an open seat narrows it.
Hyde-Smith has underrun the state's baseline before, which is the only reason this is not safe.
An independent challenge outperformed expectations in 2024; the desk is not treating that as noise.
Graham attracts enormous opposition money and wins anyway.
The ratings above are the desk's judgement. This is the arithmetic, and the two are kept apart on purpose. Certified 2024 state margins go in, printed coefficients move them, a shared national swing and a per-seat error are drawn twenty thousand times, and every number below falls out of that.
Median outcome: 49 Democratic seats, with eight runs in ten landing between 46 and 51. Fifty–fifty is not a tie — the vice-president breaks it for the Republicans, so 51 is the number that matters and the chart is drawn against 51.
- Ohio13.6%
- Florida13.0%
- Alaska10.5%
- Iowa10.2%
- Texas10.1%
- Kansas6.5%
- North Carolina6.1%
- Michigan4.9%
| Seat | 2024 | Lean | 1σ | Model — left | Desk rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
North Carolina R held · open | 3.2ʀ | 3.1ʟ | ±7.0 | 66% | 50%(+16) |
Michigan D held · open | 1.4ʀ | 4.5ʟ | ±7.0 | 71% | 65% |
Ohio R held · special | 11.2ʀ | 4.1ʀ | ±5.5 | 26% | 35% |
Florida R held · special | 13.1ʀ | 5.6ʀ | ±5.5 | 19% | 15% |
New Hampshire D held · open | 2.8ʟ | 7.8ʟ | ±7.0 | 84% | 65%(+19) |
Georgia D held | 2.2ʀ | 6.9ʟ | ±5.5 | 85% | 50%(+35) |
Minnesota D held · open | 4.2ʟ | 8.9ʟ | ±7.0 | 88% | 85% |
Iowa R held | 13.2ʀ | 7.7ʀ | ±5.5 | 12% | 35%(-23) |
Alaska R held | 13.1ʀ | 7.6ʀ | ±5.5 | 12% | 15% |
Maine R held | 6.9ʟ | 8.0ʟ | ±5.5 | 89% | 50%(+39) |
Texas R held | 13.7ʀ | 8.1ʀ | ±5.5 | 10% | 35%(-25) |
Kansas R held | 16.1ʀ | 10.0ʀ | ±5.5 | 6% | 15% |
South Carolina R held | 17.9ʀ | 11.3ʀ | ±5.5 | 4% | 15%(-11) |
Illinois D held · open | 10.9ʟ | 14.1ʟ | ±7.0 | 97% | 97% |
Montana R held | 19.9ʀ | 12.9ʀ | ±5.5 | 2% | 3% |
Virginia D held | 5.8ʟ | 13.1ʟ | ±5.5 | 98% | 97% |
New Jersey D held | 5.9ʟ | 13.2ʟ | ±5.5 | 98% | 97% |
New Mexico D held | 6.0ʟ | 13.3ʟ | ±5.5 | 98% | 97% |
Nebraska R held | 20.5ʀ | 13.4ʀ | ±5.5 | 2% | 15%(-13) |
Louisiana R held | 22.0ʀ | 14.6ʀ | ±5.5 | 1% | 15%(-14) |
Alabama R held · open | 30.5ʀ | 18.2ʀ | ±7.0 | 1% | 3% |
Mississippi R held | 22.9ʀ | 15.3ʀ | ±5.5 | 1% | 15%(-14) |
Kentucky R held · open | 30.5ʀ | 18.2ʀ | ±7.0 | 1% | 15%(-14) |
Colorado D held | 11.0ʟ | 17.2ʟ | ±5.5 | 99% | 97% |
Rhode Island D held | 13.8ʟ | 19.3ʟ | ±5.5 | 100% | 97% |
Oregon D held | 14.3ʟ | 19.8ʟ | ±5.5 | 100% | 97% |
Delaware D held | 14.7ʟ | 20.1ʟ | ±5.5 | 100% | 97% |
South Dakota R held | 29.2ʀ | 20.2ʀ | ±5.5 | 0% | 3% |
Tennessee R held | 29.7ʀ | 20.6ʀ | ±5.5 | 0% | 3% |
Arkansas R held | 30.6ʀ | 21.3ʀ | ±5.5 | 0% | 3% |
Oklahoma R held | 34.3ʀ | 24.1ʀ | ±5.5 | 0% | 3% |
Idaho R held | 36.5ʀ | 25.9ʀ | ±5.5 | 0% | 3% |
West Virginia R held | 41.9ʀ | 30.1ʀ | ±5.5 | 0% | 3% |
Wyoming R held | 45.8ʀ | 33.1ʀ | ±5.5 | 0% | 3% |
Massachusetts D held | 25.2ʟ | 28.3ʟ | ±5.5 | 100% | 97% |
Margins are written as magnitude and side — 6.0ʟ is six points to the left column, 6.0ʀ six to the right. “Model — left” is the share of 20,000 simulations in which the left column wins the seat.
The written ratings were published before this model existed. Where the two differ by ten points or more, both numbers stay on the page and both get graded separately. Editing one to match the other after the fact is the move the Standard exists to prevent.
- Mainemodel 89% · desk 50%
- Georgiamodel 85% · desk 50%
- Texasmodel 10% · desk 35%
- Iowamodel 12% · desk 35%
- New Hampshiremodel 84% · desk 65%
- North Carolinamodel 66% · desk 50%
- Kentuckymodel 1% · desk 15%
- Mississippimodel 1% · desk 15%
- Louisianamodel 1% · desk 15%
- Nebraskamodel 2% · desk 15%
- South Carolinamodel 4% · desk 15%