The Alaska room
Why this seat
Ranked-choice voting keeps Alaska off any safe list. The desk rates the seat likely rather than safe because the counting rule, not the electorate, is the source of the uncertainty.
State of the field
Sullivan seeking a third term into a top-four primary and a ranked general. A first-round plurality here is not a result.
The test
Alaska holds if the second and third preferences of the eliminated Republican-leaning candidates come home. It moves only in the branch where a broad-coalition independent consolidates them instead.
| 2024 certified margin | R+13.1 |
| 2024 margin × 0.78 | −10.2 |
| Midterm drag | +5.6 |
| Incumbent | −3.0 |
| Expected margin | R+7.6 |
| Seat uncertainty (1σ) | ±5.5 |
Model call
88%
Republican gain
Ranked-choice voting keeps Alaska from being safe for anyone, but Sullivan starts with the seat and the machine.
Nothing written on this page feeds that number. The method.
Every slot on this board is a typographic monogram. It previously carried painted “house renders” of each sitting member; an audit found the renders were not reliable likenesses — one seat was captioned with a different person’s face entirely — so the class was withdrawn rather than repaired face by face. A wrong face under a right name is a fabrication, not a style. No likeness returns to this board until every figure can be shown from a verified first-party image under identical framing. These are the figures the seat is about, not the full field.
No candidate ledger is published for this seat. A ledger requires a completed first-party source pass — every candidate's own published policy pages, read on the same day, under identical headings and an identical word budget. Until that pass is done, printing a partial board would rate the campaigns that publish against the ones that have not, which is the asymmetry the Standard exists to prevent.
See a finished ledger — GeorgiaThe Georgia room
North Carolina · Senate · Class 2The North Carolina room
Maine · Senate · Class 2The Maine room