The North Carolina room
Why this seat
An open seat in the state that has been decided inside four points in three straight cycles. Tillis retiring removes the only incumbency term the model had to apply here.
State of the field
Open on both sides. No first-party policy pass has been run on the declared candidates yet, so this room publishes no candidate ledger rather than a partial one.
The test
North Carolina turns on whether the Republican coalition's rural margin holds while the Charlotte and Research Triangle counties keep growing the other way. An open seat widens the distribution by the model's open-seat term.
| 2024 certified margin | R+3.2 |
| 2024 margin × 0.78 | −2.5 |
| Midterm drag | +5.6 |
| Expected margin | D+3.1 |
| Seat uncertainty (1σ) | ±7.0 |
Model call
66%
Democratic hold
An open seat in the closest state in the country for three cycles running.
Nothing written on this page feeds that number. The method.
No candidate ledger is published for this seat. A ledger requires a completed first-party source pass — every candidate's own published policy pages, read on the same day, under identical headings and an identical word budget. Until that pass is done, printing a partial board would rate the campaigns that publish against the ones that have not, which is the asymmetry the Standard exists to prevent.
See a finished ledger — GeorgiaThe Georgia room
Maine · Senate · Class 2The Maine room
Michigan · Senate · Class 2The Michigan room