The Maine room
Why this seat
The last Republican holding a Senate seat in a state the other party carries nationally. Every outside forecast of this seat since 2014 has been wrong in the same direction.
State of the field
Collins seeking re-election. Maine runs ranked-choice generals, so a first-round lead is not a result and the desk does not treat it as one.
The test
Collins survives if her personal vote keeps running ahead of the party line by the double digits it has before. She loses if the race nationalises and the ranked-choice second round consolidates against her.
| 2024 certified margin | D+6.9 |
| 2024 margin × 0.78 | +5.4 |
| Midterm drag | +5.6 |
| Incumbent | −3.0 |
| Expected margin | D+8.0 |
| Seat uncertainty (1σ) | ±5.5 |
Model call
89%
Democratic hold
The last Republican holding a seat in a state the other party carried nationally; every cycle has been called wrong here.
Nothing written on this page feeds that number. The method.
No candidate ledger is published for this seat. A ledger requires a completed first-party source pass — every candidate's own published policy pages, read on the same day, under identical headings and an identical word budget. Until that pass is done, printing a partial board would rate the campaigns that publish against the ones that have not, which is the asymmetry the Standard exists to prevent.
See a finished ledger — GeorgiaThe Georgia room
North Carolina · Senate · Class 2The North Carolina room
Michigan · Senate · Class 2The Michigan room