The Georgia room
Why this seat
The most exposed incumbent of the cycle. Ossoff won a runoff by a fraction in a state that voted the other way at the top of the ticket in 2024, and the seat sits inside the model's tipping band.
State of the field
Resolved on both sides. Ossoff defends; Mike Collins took the Republican nomination in the 16 June runoff, beating Derek Dooley 55.5–44.5. The desk's ledger holds both nominees under identical headings.
The test
Georgia holds if the Atlanta suburbs turn out at anything close to a presidential rate. It flips if midterm drop-off there outruns the drag on the president's party statewide.
| 2024 certified margin | R+2.2 |
| 2024 margin × 0.78 | −1.7 |
| Midterm drag | +5.6 |
| Incumbent | +3.0 |
| Expected margin | D+6.9 |
| Seat uncertainty (1σ) | ±5.5 |
Model call
85%
Democratic hold
The single most exposed incumbent of the cycle: a first-termer who won by a fraction in a state that voted the other way in 2024.
Nothing written on this page feeds that number. The method.
Why the board looks empty
It is not a fault in the page. On 2026-08-04 the desk narrowed the source class to official campaign policy pages only — no government office issues pages, no voting records, no news paraphrase. At that date three of the four campaigns publish no policy content at all, so their cells stand empty and the silence ledger below carries the finding.
Jon Ossoff
https://electjon.comNo issues or platform page. The biography page publishes a list of what the campaign says he has fought to do, which is first-party and is used where it speaks to a heading.
Mike Collins
https://mikecollinsga.comBiography, endorsements, events, press and store. The biography names two bills he passed; there is no issues page and no stated forward platform.
Cells matched by the desk against a first-party source read 'Source matched'. They become 'Signed' only when the editor of record countersigns them. Until then the badge says exactly how far the check has got, and no further.
United States Senator for Georgia since 2021
Democrat
United States Representative, Georgia's 10th district
Republican
Cost of living
What would they do about prices, wages and household costs?
Jon Ossoff
Campaign lists capping insulin at $35 a month for seniors and lowering housing prices among the things he has fought to do.
electjon.com — campaign biography, record list
Mike Collins
No stated position
Collins campaign site publishes no policy platform; no first-party statement on this heading.
Taxes
Whose taxes go up, whose go down, and which provisions do they extend?
Jon Ossoff
No stated position
Ossoff campaign site publishes no policy platform; heading not addressed in the record list.
Mike Collins
No stated position
Collins campaign site publishes no policy platform; no first-party statement on this heading.
Health care
Coverage, drug pricing, and the future of the exchanges.
Jon Ossoff
Campaign lists the insulin cap, upgraded care for pregnant women, babies and children, new health facilities statewide, and expanding Medicaid in Georgia.
electjon.com — campaign biography, record list
Mike Collins
No stated position
Collins campaign site publishes no policy platform; no first-party statement on this heading.
Immigration
Enforcement, the border, and status for people already here.
Jon Ossoff
Campaign lists strengthening border security among the things he has fought to do. No stated position on status for people already here.
electjon.com — campaign biography, record list
Mike Collins
Biography states he passed the Laken Riley Act, following the murder of a Georgia student, and names it his answer on the issue. No forward platform stated.
mikecollinsga.com — campaign biography
Energy
Production, permitting, and the clean-energy credits.
Jon Ossoff
No stated position
Ossoff campaign site publishes no policy platform; heading not addressed in the record list.
Mike Collins
No stated position
Collins campaign site publishes no policy platform; no first-party statement on this heading.
Abortion
What federal law, if any, should govern access.
Jon Ossoff
Campaign lists defending women's freedom of choice in reproductive health care among the things he has fought to do. No stated federal mechanism.
electjon.com — campaign biography, record list
Mike Collins
No stated position
Collins campaign site publishes no policy platform; no first-party statement on this heading.
Guns
What restrictions or protections they would vote for.
Jon Ossoff
No stated position
Ossoff campaign site publishes no policy platform; heading not addressed in the record list.
Mike Collins
No stated position
Collins campaign site publishes no policy platform; no first-party statement on this heading.
Trade
Tariffs, and who sets them — Congress or the president.
Jon Ossoff
No stated position
Ossoff campaign site publishes no policy platform; heading not addressed in the record list.
Mike Collins
No stated position
Collins campaign site publishes no policy platform; no first-party statement on this heading.
Spending and debt
What they would cut, and what they would protect.
Jon Ossoff
Campaign lists protecting Social Security and Medicare, and strengthening Social Security benefits for public servants. No stated position on cuts elsewhere.
electjon.com — campaign biography, record list
Mike Collins
Biography states a record of eliminating government bureaucracy and identifying inefficiencies. No spending figure, cap or target stated.
mikecollinsga.com — campaign biography
Elections
Voting rules, certification, and federal election law.
Jon Ossoff
Campaign lists banning members of Congress from trading stocks. No stated position on voting rules, certification or federal election law.
electjon.com — campaign biography, record list
Mike Collins
No stated position
Collins campaign site publishes no policy platform; no first-party statement on this heading.
Georgia's industrial corridor
GeorgiaThe Savannah port, the Hyundai plant and the battery supply chain built around them — what happens to the incentives and the workforce.
Jon Ossoff
Campaign lists attracting thousands of manufacturing jobs to Georgia, helping growers export more, and statewide infrastructure and high-speed internet.
electjon.com — campaign biography, record list
Mike Collins
Biography states three trucking and logistics businesses built in Georgia and a freight and water-resources subcommittee chairmanship. No corridor policy stated.
mikecollinsga.com — campaign biography
Headings where a candidate has published nothing the desk could locate. This is a factual observation about the public record on the retrieval date. It is not a criticism, and on most boards it is the most informative panel on the page.
- Jon Ossoff4 of 11 headingsTaxes · Energy · Guns · Trade
- Mike Collins8 of 11 headingsCost of living · Taxes · Health care · Energy · Abortion · Guns · Trade · Elections
Asymmetry is bias with the fingerprints wiped off. So the page counts itself in public.
Jon Ossoff
149 words · 7/11 stated · 11/11 source-matched
Mike Collins
66 words · 3/11 stated · 11/11 source-matched
Spread between the longest and shortest column: 83 words. Every cell is capped at 28. The remaining difference is candidates who have said nothing on a heading, not the desk giving one of them more room.
Symmetry audit passing — every heading filled for every candidate, no cell over budget
Portraits · board class monogram
This board carries no faces. It previously ran painted house renders of each candidate’s official portrait; an audit found the renders were not reliable likenesses of the people they were captioned with, and a caption on the wrong face is the worst failure a comparison board can commit. Until every candidate can be shown from a verified first-party image under identical framing, every slot is a uniform typographic monogram — nobody is pictured, so nobody is pictured better.
4 / 5 · Head and shoulders, eyes on the upper third, shoulders running off the bottom edge · Typographic monogram on a flat field — no photograph, no render, no likeness of any kind
- Jon Ossoff — Typographic slot — no likeness published
- Mike Collins — Typographic slot — no likeness published
Portrait audit passing — one class, one framing, every candidate
Same headings, same budget, every candidate
Eleven headings, identical for every column, each cell capped at 28 words. The page audits itself on load and prints the word count of each column at the bottom. Asymmetry is the bias — if one candidate got four sentences on health care and another got one, an argument would have been made without anyone writing one.
Official campaign policy sources only
A cell may rest only on policy the candidate's own campaign publishes. Not the officeholder's taxpayer-funded government issues page — that is government communication, and counting it would let sitting members look detailed while a challenger looked empty. Never a reporter's characterisation, never an interview paraphrase, never an opponent's advertisement.
Silence is reported, not punished
Where a candidate's campaign has not addressed a heading, the cell reads 'No stated position' and the candidate appears in the silence ledger. That is a factual observation about the public record on the retrieval date, and it is not a criticism. On this board it is most of the board.
Three states, and the badge says which
Platforms move, so each cell is dated individually and carries its own check state. 'Source match pending' means nobody here has opened the source. 'Source matched' means the desk read the campaign's own page on the pass date and it carries that wording. 'Signed' means the editor of record has countersigned it as well. The badge never claims the next state up.
Pictures follow the same rules as words
Every candidate carries an identical portrait slot at the same ratio, framing and treatment, and images appear only when a single class of source — official portraits, campaign press kits, or house artwork — covers the whole field. Where one candidate has no compliant image, nobody gets one and the slot stays typographic. The picture audit prints at the foot of the page with the word counts.
No ranking, no scoring, no winner
The Count rates races and grades itself on those ratings. The ledger rates nobody. There is no scorecard here, no closeness measure, no 'both sides agree' summary line. You are given the two records and you do the rest.
If a cell misstates a candidate's position, the desk wants the first-party source that shows it. Corrections are made to the cell, the retrieval date is reset, and the change is logged in the open — never edited silently.
The ledger stays unscored on purpose. The left-right placement lives on its own page, with five printed policy anchors per heading, silence excluded rather than counted as moderation, and no overall number published for a candidate whose campaign has said too little to measure.
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