The Arizona mansion
Why this seat
Hobbs won by a fraction of a point and has governed against a legislature of the other party for the whole term. There is an incumbency term here, and it is small.
State of the field
An incumbent Democrat defending against a Republican field the primary has not resolved.
The test
Arizona holds if Maricopa's suburban swing since 2020 is durable. It flips if that swing was a candidate-quality effect on the other side rather than a realignment.
The mansion model runs separately from the Senate one. It carries less of the presidential result into the race — 0.45 of a point per point, against 0.78 on the Senate board — and allows a wider miss per seat, because a governor's race turns on a personal vote a national baseline cannot see. Both numbers stand: the simulated one and the one the desk wrote first.
| Held now | Democratic |
| On the ballot | Katie Hobbs |
| 2024 presidential margin | −5.5 |
| Modelled lean · 1σ | +6.7 · ±7.5 |
| Desk rating | 65% Democratic |
| Band meaning | A real advantage. About a third of them will flip anyway. |
Model call · governors-2026.1
79%
Democratic nominee wins
Hobbs won by a fraction of a point and has governed against a legislature of the other party ever since.
Nothing written on this page feeds that number. The method.
Every slot on this board is a typographic monogram. It previously carried painted “house renders” of each sitting member; an audit found the renders were not reliable likenesses — one seat was captioned with a different person’s face entirely — so the class was withdrawn rather than repaired face by face. A wrong face under a right name is a fabrication, not a style. No likeness returns to this board until every figure can be shown from a verified first-party image under identical framing. These are the figures the seat is about, not the full field.
No candidate ledger is published for this seat. A ledger requires a completed first-party source pass — every candidate's own published policy pages, read on the same day, under identical headings and an identical word budget. Until that pass is done, printing a partial board would rate the campaigns that publish against the ones that have not, which is the asymmetry the Standard exists to prevent.
See a finished ledger — GeorgiaThe Georgia room
North Carolina · Senate · Class 2The North Carolina room
Maine · Senate · Class 2The Maine room