The Georgia mansion
Why this seat
Kemp is termed out, so the closest state in the country runs an open governor's race on the same ballot as its closest Senate race. The two are correlated and the desk says so rather than rating them as independent events.
State of the field
Open, and both nominations settled in the 16 June runoffs: Rick Jackson took the Republican nomination over Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, and Keisha Lance Bottoms carries the Democratic one.
The test
An open mansion in Georgia is decided by which coalition treats a midterm like a presidential year. Neither side has an incumbency term to fall back on.
The mansion model runs separately from the Senate one. It carries less of the presidential result into the race — 0.45 of a point per point, against 0.78 on the Senate board — and allows a wider miss per seat, because a governor's race turns on a personal vote a national baseline cannot see. Both numbers stand: the simulated one and the one the desk wrote first.
| Held now | Republican |
| On the ballot | Open (Kemp termed out) |
| 2024 presidential margin | −2.2 |
| Modelled lean · 1σ | +3.2 · ±9.5 |
| Desk rating | 50% Republican |
| Band meaning | The desk does not know. Saying so is the honest call. |
Model call · governors-2026.1
63%
Democratic nominee wins
An open mansion in the closest state in the country, with no incumbent advantage on either side.
Nothing written on this page feeds that number. The method.
No candidate ledger is published for this seat. A ledger requires a completed first-party source pass — every candidate's own published policy pages, read on the same day, under identical headings and an identical word budget. Until that pass is done, printing a partial board would rate the campaigns that publish against the ones that have not, which is the asymmetry the Standard exists to prevent.
See a finished ledger — GeorgiaThe Georgia room
North Carolina · Senate · Class 2The North Carolina room
Maine · Senate · Class 2The Maine room