The Michigan room
Why this seat
Open, in a state whose last two Senate races were decided inside two points. Michigan is the seat most likely to decide the chamber if the national environment lands near the middle of the drag prior.
State of the field
No incumbent on either side. The desk has not completed a source pass on the field, so no ledger is published here.
The test
Michigan holds for the Democrats if Wayne and Washtenaw turnout stays near its off-year ceiling. It flips on a soft Detroit turnout with no compensating suburban swing.
| 2024 certified margin | R+1.4 |
| 2024 margin × 0.78 | −1.1 |
| Midterm drag | +5.6 |
| Expected margin | D+4.5 |
| Seat uncertainty (1σ) | ±7.0 |
Model call
71%
Democratic hold
Michigan's last two Senate races were decided inside two points, and this one has no incumbent.
Nothing written on this page feeds that number. The method.
No candidate ledger is published for this seat. A ledger requires a completed first-party source pass — every candidate's own published policy pages, read on the same day, under identical headings and an identical word budget. Until that pass is done, printing a partial board would rate the campaigns that publish against the ones that have not, which is the asymmetry the Standard exists to prevent.
See a finished ledger — GeorgiaThe Georgia room
North Carolina · Senate · Class 2The North Carolina room
Maine · Senate · Class 2The Maine room