The New Hampshire room
Why this seat
An open seat in a state that elects Republican governors and Democratic senators in the same election without apparent discomfort. The ticket-splitting is the structure, not an anomaly.
State of the field
Open on the Democratic side after Shaheen's retirement; the Republican field turns on whether its strongest statewide name runs.
The test
New Hampshire holds if the federal-versus-state split persists. It flips if the Republicans nominate the candidate who already wins statewide and the split collapses into one line.
| 2024 certified margin | D+2.8 |
| 2024 margin × 0.78 | +2.2 |
| Midterm drag | +5.6 |
| Expected margin | D+7.8 |
| Seat uncertainty (1σ) | ±7.0 |
Model call
84%
Democratic hold
An open seat in a state that elects Republican governors and Democratic senators without apparent difficulty.
Nothing written on this page feeds that number. The method.
No candidate ledger is published for this seat. A ledger requires a completed first-party source pass — every candidate's own published policy pages, read on the same day, under identical headings and an identical word budget. Until that pass is done, printing a partial board would rate the campaigns that publish against the ones that have not, which is the asymmetry the Standard exists to prevent.
See a finished ledger — GeorgiaThe Georgia room
North Carolina · Senate · Class 2The North Carolina room
Maine · Senate · Class 2The Maine room