The Nevada mansion
Why this seat
A Republican governor sitting on an electorate that still registers narrowly the other way. Nevada's off-year turnout machine is the variable everyone models badly.
State of the field
Lombardo seeking a second term; the Democratic field is consolidating.
The test
Nevada holds for the incumbent if Clark County turnout stays at its midterm level. It flips if the organised turnout operation performs at anything near a presidential rate.
The mansion model runs separately from the Senate one. It carries less of the presidential result into the race — 0.45 of a point per point, against 0.78 on the Senate board — and allows a wider miss per seat, because a governor's race turns on a personal vote a national baseline cannot see. Both numbers stand: the simulated one and the one the desk wrote first.
| Held now | Republican |
| On the ballot | Joe Lombardo |
| 2024 presidential margin | −3.1 |
| Modelled lean · 1σ | −2.2 · ±7.5 |
| Desk rating | 50% Republican |
| Band meaning | The desk does not know. Saying so is the honest call. |
Model call · governors-2026.1
39%
Democratic nominee wins
A Republican governor in a state whose electorate is still narrowly the other way.
Nothing written on this page feeds that number. The method.
Every slot on this board is a typographic monogram. It previously carried painted “house renders” of each sitting member; an audit found the renders were not reliable likenesses — one seat was captioned with a different person’s face entirely — so the class was withdrawn rather than repaired face by face. A wrong face under a right name is a fabrication, not a style. No likeness returns to this board until every figure can be shown from a verified first-party image under identical framing. These are the figures the seat is about, not the full field.
No candidate ledger is published for this seat. A ledger requires a completed first-party source pass — every candidate's own published policy pages, read on the same day, under identical headings and an identical word budget. Until that pass is done, printing a partial board would rate the campaigns that publish against the ones that have not, which is the asymmetry the Standard exists to prevent.
See a finished ledger — GeorgiaThe Georgia room
North Carolina · Senate · Class 2The North Carolina room
Maine · Senate · Class 2The Maine room