The Ohio room
Why this seat
An appointed senator facing voters for the first time. The model applies no incumbency term to an appointment, which is why this rates closer than Ohio's recent statewide results would suggest.
State of the field
Husted defending an appointment; the Democratic field is forming around a single well-funded name.
The test
Ohio holds if the appointment is treated as incumbency by voters. It moves if the seat is read as an open one and the state's 2018 midterm pattern repeats.
| 2024 certified margin | R+11.2 |
| 2024 margin × 0.78 | −8.7 |
| Midterm drag | +5.6 |
| Appointed incumbent | −1.0 |
| Expected margin | R+4.1 |
| Seat uncertainty (1σ) | ±5.5 |
Model call
74%
Republican gain
An appointed senator, a state that has moved right, and a midterm wind pointing the other way.
Nothing written on this page feeds that number. The method.
Every slot on this board is a typographic monogram. It previously carried painted “house renders” of each sitting member; an audit found the renders were not reliable likenesses — one seat was captioned with a different person’s face entirely — so the class was withdrawn rather than repaired face by face. A wrong face under a right name is a fabrication, not a style. No likeness returns to this board until every figure can be shown from a verified first-party image under identical framing. These are the figures the seat is about, not the full field.
No candidate ledger is published for this seat. A ledger requires a completed first-party source pass — every candidate's own published policy pages, read on the same day, under identical headings and an identical word budget. Until that pass is done, printing a partial board would rate the campaigns that publish against the ones that have not, which is the asymmetry the Standard exists to prevent.
See a finished ledger — GeorgiaThe Georgia room
North Carolina · Senate · Class 2The North Carolina room
Maine · Senate · Class 2The Maine room