The Texas room
Why this seat
The fundamentals are not close. The live risk is a nominee chosen by a low-turnout primary electorate, which is a different distribution from the state's general-election baseline.
State of the field
A contested Republican primary against a sitting senator, with the Democratic field waiting on its outcome.
The test
Texas is safe for the party that holds it if the primary resolves conventionally. It becomes a race only in the branch where the nominee underruns the state baseline by the kind of margin Texas has produced once before.
| 2024 certified margin | R+13.7 |
| 2024 margin × 0.78 | −10.7 |
| Midterm drag | +5.6 |
| Incumbent | −3.0 |
| Expected margin | R+8.1 |
| Seat uncertainty (1σ) | ±5.5 |
Model call
90%
Republican gain
Texas is not close on the fundamentals; a nominee chosen by a low-turnout primary is the live risk.
Nothing written on this page feeds that number. The method.
Every slot on this board is a typographic monogram. It previously carried painted “house renders” of each sitting member; an audit found the renders were not reliable likenesses — one seat was captioned with a different person’s face entirely — so the class was withdrawn rather than repaired face by face. A wrong face under a right name is a fabrication, not a style. No likeness returns to this board until every figure can be shown from a verified first-party image under identical framing. These are the figures the seat is about, not the full field.
No candidate ledger is published for this seat. A ledger requires a completed first-party source pass — every candidate's own published policy pages, read on the same day, under identical headings and an identical word budget. Until that pass is done, printing a partial board would rate the campaigns that publish against the ones that have not, which is the asymmetry the Standard exists to prevent.
See a finished ledger — GeorgiaThe Georgia room
North Carolina · Senate · Class 2The North Carolina room
Maine · Senate · Class 2The Maine room