The Wisconsin mansion
Why this seat
Wisconsin decides statewide races by about a point. Evers retiring removes the incumbency term that was the only thing keeping this off a coin flip.
State of the field
Open, primaries unresolved on both sides.
The test
Wisconsin moves with the WOW counties around Milwaukee. If they keep drifting the way they have since 2018, an open seat is not safe for the party that used to bank them.
The mansion model runs separately from the Senate one. It carries less of the presidential result into the race — 0.45 of a point per point, against 0.78 on the Senate board — and allows a wider miss per seat, because a governor's race turns on a personal vote a national baseline cannot see. Both numbers stand: the simulated one and the one the desk wrote first.
| Held now | Democratic |
| On the ballot | Open (Evers retiring) |
| 2024 presidential margin | −0.9 |
| Modelled lean · 1σ | +3.8 · ±9.5 |
| Desk rating | 50% Democratic |
| Band meaning | The desk does not know. Saying so is the honest call. |
Model call · governors-2026.1
65%
Democratic nominee wins
Wisconsin decides statewide races by a point; removing the incumbent removes the only thing that was not a coin flip.
Nothing written on this page feeds that number. The method.
No candidate ledger is published for this seat. A ledger requires a completed first-party source pass — every candidate's own published policy pages, read on the same day, under identical headings and an identical word budget. Until that pass is done, printing a partial board would rate the campaigns that publish against the ones that have not, which is the asymmetry the Standard exists to prevent.
See a finished ledger — GeorgiaThe Georgia room
North Carolina · Senate · Class 2The North Carolina room
Maine · Senate · Class 2The Maine room